Friday, October 24, 2008

Sarah Palin is here to stay

The damage done to the country by John McCain with the selection of Sarah Palin is going to unravel in years to come. The consequences of this misjudgment will not end on Nov 4 if by Obama winning the election.

Palin is not going anywhere, even if McCain losses, it is safe to say that McCain will be out politics by the next decade. Palin, in the other hand, is here to stay for decades. Whether McCain wins or not, Palin becomes a de facto candidate for the GOP nomination of 2012. Add to that a conservative movement that will get energize by being on the opposition and it is clear that Palin will be a force to be reckon with.

The conservative movement is far from dead, it is just taking his cues from the DowJones index and it is a bit less ebullient, but far from gone.

You can twitch in disgust as you said it, but Sarah Palin has an undeniable folksy common touch, she is fun to watch. Whether it comes from a genuine place or not can be debated. The fact is she has it, she is only going to get better at it and this is a very effective tool in the arsenal of any politician. Joe Liberman could use the traces of common touch that Sarah leaves of her stool, for example.

Democrats don't win elections Republicans loose them. Don't forget that the selection of Sara Paling brought the McCain ticket from 10 behind to a 2 points lead. Only the crash of Wall Street brought the race to where it is now. This is not that different from the mid-term election of 06. You can argue that that election was lost by Mark Foley pedophilic tendencies and Larry Craig’s thirst for anonymous gay sex on the public stool of an airport (It is hard to concocted a more sordid story). Those two event weeks before the election discouraged enough conservatives to give the win to the Democrats

This country is essentially a right to center country, dare I say, a conservative country. I will repeat this; Liberals never win elections. Clinton didn't win his first term, Ross Perot pouched enough Republicans to hand the election to Clinton. Clinton won a second term by stealing the Conservative agenda and implementing it much more effectively than any Republican has done in the last 4 decades. Balancing the budget, shrinking well-fare roles, and increasing prestige and respect on the international arena. He played the conservative dance and was reward it accordingly.

Obama has a lead by appealing to conservatives that would go back to their ingrained bias at the first opportunity.

In four more years Sarah Palin’s main weakness, lack of experience, will have evaporated, just by virtue of sticking around for that long. All she needs to do now is sit pretty, (who says that pageant experience is not useful in politics?) and take the party from McCain, her unenthusiastic mentor, who put her on the map of National and International politics. This will fit neatly in the pattern of her career. (The GOP will see a battle for the soul of the party on a Bush-Palin struggle no dissimilar to the Clinton-Obama struggle of the DNC of the last 2 years.)

She uses her mentors and then discards them. The list of discarded mentors is surprisingly long for somebody with such a short career. John Stein former mayor of Wasilla helped launch her career. for example. Council member Nick Carney who is quoted saying "I called Sarah's campaign for mayor the end of the age of innocence in Wasilla," was also among her early mentors.

There was a knife-sharp, personal edge to Palin's campaign that many locals found disturbing, particularly because of the warm relationship between Palin and Stein before the race.

Other member of the discarded list included the recently prosecuted Senator of Alaska Ted Stevens. How long before John McCain is added to this list?

According to some political observers in Alaska, this pattern -- exploiting "old-boy" mentors and then turning against them for her own advantage -- defines Sarah Palin's rise to power. Again and again, Palin has charmed powerful political patrons, and then rejected them when it suited her purposes. She has crafted a public image as a clean politics reformer, but in truth, she has only blown the whistle on political corruption when it was expedient for her to do so. Above all, Palin is a dynamo of ambition, shrewdly maneuvering her way through the notoriously compromised world of Alaska politics, making and breaking alliances along the way

McCain has created a monster that will devour any legacy he may have hoped to leave behind. I can envision McCain losing this election, getting his soul back, realizing the huge mistake he has made and spending the sunset of his career fighting the monsters he created. McCain is already giving clear signs that he is uneasy as described by NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd in an interview to air this week.

Of the four candidates in the ticket, Sarah Palin has a great hand to play, the possibilities are wide open ahead of her. Obama in the other hand if victorious will inherit a royal mess. Within 2 week of inauguration the GOP will make him responsible of the disastrous economy and not matter what he does in Iraq he will be accused of the whole boondoggle. McCain will have to come to terms with the fact that he is never going to be president and Biden will be Biden.

So let’s make room for Sarah Palin, she is here to stay.

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